The race tightened a bit when Scozzafava dropped out, but Hoffman still appears to have a commanding lead.

  Here are some interesting facts from our unweighted numbers so far:

  -In a three way contest Doug Hoffman leads Bill Owens by 19 points. In a two way contest Hoffman leads Owens by 15 points. So the Dede Scozzafava withdrawal and endorsement will probably tighten the race some but not nearly enough.

  -58% of Republicans think that Scozzafava’s a liberal and that was obviously before her endorsement today.

  -The Rush Limbaugh effect- Hoffman has a 79 point lead with Rush listeners while Owens has a 6 point lead with people who don’t listen to the show.

Obviously, we’re not going to know anything for sure until election day tomorrow, but if Hoffman wins this race it’s a blow to Republican conventional wisdom which has it that we must run so-called “moderate” Republicans in order to win elections.

Hoffman can prove that conservatives can win.

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