Updated Revenue Forecast Shows Slowing Growth - KXNet - Bismarck/Minot/Williston/Dickinson

Updated Revenue Forecast Shows Slowing Growth

An economic analyst says there are signs North Dakota's fast pace of growth is stabilizing.

Lawmakers today get an updated revenue forecast, it's what they use to help them draft their budget for the next two years.

Donnell Preskey has the details.

When it comes to economic forecasts, the sun has been shining on North Dakota...

This time is no different.

An update to the current bienniums revenue forecast shows the state ending June with $41 million more than predicted two months ago.

More money collected through sales taxes is the biggest reason for change.

Steve Cochrane with Moody's Analytics says, "ND is still the leader but things have slowed a little it seems."

Cochrane says he sees a change ahead. He's updating his projection for the next two years, saying he expects the growth to slow down.

The new projection is $45 million less than what he predicted in November.

Rep. Al Carlson says, "It's a decrease in the increase, I don't think it's going backwards, we've been on a high tide."

Cochrane says the state can expect to see a decrease in the growth in sales tax and income tax revenue in the next two years.

He's basing that on the rig count, which is around 180.

Fewer rigs drilling in the state, means less in sales tax.

"ND still has a booming economy, experts making projections are saying we need to lower our expectations a little bit," says Senator Ray Holmberg.

"A change in growth is not a bad thing, means fit into reality of new norm. It's not a crisis situation, it calls for moderation," says Senator John Warner.

Senator Larry Robinson says he thinks the updated prediction tells lawmakers, the rate of growth is difficult to sustain.

Lawmakers who serve on the House and Senate Appropriations Committees say they're not too concerned about the downward change but say it's a reminder to how fast the numbers can switch directions.

"The intent of the message to be careful because things could change, as fast as they go up, they could go down. Maybe that's more of the message than the size of the number," says Carlson.

Cochrane says the energy industry has created a higher demand for business, engineering, and architectural jobs in the state.