Some locations along the Mouse River are nearly assured of seeing at least minor flooding this spring.
That's the finding of Hydrologist Allen Schlag of the National Weather Service.
He issued a new flood outlook today, saying the flood risk appears to get higher as you travel downstream on the Mouse.
Schlag says there is substantial snowpack upstream of the two major Canadian dams that are designed to hold back flood waters.
Below those dams there is a lower-than-average snowpack.
And he says that lower snowpack level continues through the Velva region.
But snow and moisture amounts rise rapidly downstream of Velva in the Towner and Westhope regions.
In addition, the risk of over-land flooding from snowmelt is greatest in those areas.
Putting numbers to the flood outlook, the National Weather Service puts the chance of moderate flooding at less than 5% in most places along the Mouse, including the city of Minot.
But the chance of moderate flooding is estimated at 91% in Towner, 95% in Bantry, 67% near Foxholm, 42% near Westhope, and 24% at Sawyer.
Schlag also says there's a significant chance of flooding along the Willow Creek - with a 21% chance of moderate flooding.
Another flood outlook is scheduled to be released in two weeks.