Across the Dakotas, it is sunny and breezy. All together, the forecast has not changed much at all. It is dry with warmer temp. Today is the start of “meteorological summer” and it feels like it. Through most of the 7 day planner, daytime highs will stay in the 80s with a few 90s possible. Add in the return of stronger & gusty winds through the next couple of days and the next big change up will be rain chances Friday. This morning, the latest drought monitor has come out and all of North Dakota is Abnormally Dry (Yellow) and parts of Central & Southern ND are in a Moderate Drought (orange). This week that orange area spread out even farther and includes much more of the state. So, a lot of rain is needed. Unfortunately, there are only a few chances for rain in the 7day planner, none of which will be very significant.
Our next chance for rain is not too far down the road, through. Friday & Friday night, scattered showers & thunderstorms will move West to East across the state with a marginal (low) risk for severe weather. The start of this event will be Friday AM, but it will mostly be dry. With showers and then thunderstorms developing, through the day. The last several model runs have continued to vary and I am still not sold on a widespread rain event. However, if thunderstorms do start to develop, it will not take much for a couple of them to reach the severe threshold. Also, it doesn’t look like very significant rainfall totals are in the forecast at all. It looks like most of the activity will be out of the state by late, Saturday morning. Only scattered showers & thunderstorms are in the forecast and of those who get wet, only 0.25″ – 0.50″ of new rain is expected with areas of 0.50″-1″ possible for some.
A “Marginal Risk” for severe weather means that isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. If severe weather develops, it will be limited in duration and/or coverage/intensity. Winds 40-60mph with hail up to 1″ & little to no risk for tornadoes.
From the KX Storm Center:
In the wake of this front, winds will pick up more and become strong with more sunshine, unseasonable warm temperatures and little to no chance for rain. A few of the long-range models bring rain chances in by Tuesday, but again… Not much in the way of higher totals. By the end of the 7day planner, temps will trend back down to a more seasonable range.
Tonight, will be mostly clear with mild temps and a little humid. Lows in the 50s & 60s with a SE wind 5-15mph G20 & calming.
Friday will still be warm with more clouds and rising rain chances. Showers & thunderstorms will develop and move across the state with a marginal (low) risk for severe weather. Highs in the 80s with a few 90s and a SE/West wind 10-20mph G30. 40% chance of rain.
Friday night, partly cloudy with scattered showers & thunderstorms fizzling out and still breezy. Lows in the 50s & 60s with a SW/West wind 5-15mph, calming for some. 30% chance of rain.
Saturday, clearing early with plenty of sunshine and warm temps. Highs in the 80s with a few 70s and a West/NW wind 15-25mph G35.
Saturday night, mostly clear and a little cooler. Lows in the 50s with a NW wind 5-15mph.