Dorrell’s PM Forecast Update | Monday 6/12

Weather Blog
From the KX Storm Center:    
We started off the work week with clearing, more sunshine & it has been a little breezy for some with seasonable temperatures. Changes ahead include a good chance for widespread rain & significant rainfall totals for much of the state. At this point, the Eastern half of the state will get more. Nevertheless, Western & Central ND can expect much needed rainfall with a marginal/slight risk for severe weather tonight and a marginal/slight/enhanced risk for severe weather. The highest risk for severe weather will be over South Central & Southeast ND tomorrow afternoon & evening. 
Here is how the timeline breaks down. It is sunny & a little breezy, right now. A ridge of high pressure will move East & NE, away from the Dakotas. Tonight, showers & thunderstorms will develop and move North, into the state. The risk for severe weather will mainly be after Midnight with showers & thunderstorms moving North & NE through the state. The most significant risk for severe weather is for South Central & parts of Western ND. This will be round 1 of our severe weather risk. 
Tuesday, showers & thunderstorms fizzle out early with some clearing through the day. The warmer temps get, the stronger thunderstorms will be for our 2nd round. By Tuesday (mid to late) afternoon, thunderstorms will start to spark up over Central & Eastern ND. Through the late afternoon & evening, rain chances become widespread with a risk for severe weather across the state. The most significant risk for severe weather will be over South Central & Southeast ND with a slight risk for the rest of the Eastern half of North Dakota. Needless to say, tomorrow will be a busy day, and the risk for severe weather will start tonight. 
 
A marginal risk for severe weather means isolated severe storms are possible. They will be limited in duration/coverage/intensity. Winds 40-60mph, Hail up to 1″ & low tornado risk.
 
Slight: Scattered severe storms possible. They will be short-lived & not not widespread. Isolated intense storms possible. One or two tornadoes possible. Reports of strong/damaging wind & hail ~1″, isolated 2″.

Enhanced: Numerous severe storms possible. More persistent & becoming widespread with a few intense storms. A few tornadoes, several reports of wind damage & damaging hail 1″-2″.
 
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Tonight, showers & thunderstorms will become likely for much of Western & Central ND with a risk for severe weather after around/after Midnight. Lows in the 50s & 60s with an East wind 15-25mph G35 and an 80% chance of rain.
 
Tuesday, partly to mostly cloudy and a little muggy with rain chances returning after Noon. Showers & thunderstorms will become widespread again with another round of severe weather possible. Highs in the 70s with a few 80s and an East/South wind 10-20mph G30. 60% chance of rain.
 
Tuesday night, scattered showers & thunderstorms with a chance of severe weather early. Lows in the 50s with a few 40s & a few 60s (East). South/West wind 5-15mph G20 and a 40% chance of rain.
 
Wednesday, partly cloudy with some clearing & windy. Expect scattered showers with a few thunderstorms possible. Highs in the 60s & 70s with a few 80s East. West wind 15-25mph G35 and a 40% chance of rain.
 
Wednesday night, a few areas of lingering rain & breezy for some. Lows in the 40s & 50s with a West wind 5-15mph G25. 20% chance of rain.
 

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