Independence Day PM Forecast Update | Tuesday 7/4

Weather Blog
From the KX Storm Center:
Across the state on this Independence Day, it is mostly sunny, hot and a little humid. Temperatures are well above average, topping out in the mid to upper 90s with a few triple digits not out of the question. There is also a cold front that is moving slowly across the Dakotas. Showers and thunderstorms have been developing along this front. As of this afternoon, there hasn’t been anything severe with this system. That being said, dew points are well into the 60s with a few 70s East. High resolution models have more development from the late afternoon, through the evening for parts of Western & Central ND. The Storm Prediction Center has parts of Central & Eastern ND under a Marginal Risk for severe weather. There is a Slight Risk for severe weather that extends into parts of Eastern ND. 

A Marginal Risk for severe weather means that isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. They will be limited in duration, coverage & intensity. For the most part, organized & stronger thunderstorms will have 40-60mph winds, hail up to 1″ and a very low risk for tornadoes. 
This passing low pressure system & cold front will not move very fast. A secondary low will redevelop on the lee side of the Rockys, near the international border. This second low will bring another round of scattered showers & thunderstorms with a Marginal risk of severe weather, again tomorrow. For both rounds of hit & miss rain, there will be a potential for severe weather. Looking at the big picture, not much rain is expected with less than 20% of Western & Central ND even getting wet. Through the next 48 hours,  most of us will stay dry and the highest rain chances will be for Eastern ND. However, some of us could see more needed rainfall… Especially in Central vND vs the Western third of the state. 
After this system moves out of the Dakotas, a hot & dry weather pattern will continue through the next 7days. There will only be a few chances for scattered/isolated rain. With extreme drought conditions not giving in this next week isn’t helping. Daytime high temperatures will fall back through the 90s and into the 80s by Friday. Sunshine will continue with temps rebounding back into the 90s and near triple digits again by the end of the 7day planner. 

So, hot & humid with little relief from the drought will remain our weather theme. 

Tonight, rain chances ending under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Lows in the 50s & 60s with a North/East wind 5-15mph G20. 20% chance of rain & a Marginal risk of severe weather. 
Wednesday, mostly sunny with a second round of PM rain and thunderstorms. It will be hot again & a little humid. Highs in the mid to upper 90s with some climbing into the triple digits (West & South). East/SW wind 5-15mph G20+ and a 20% chance of rain with a Marginal risk of severe weather. 
Wednesday night, tapering rain chances, mostly clear and a little muggy. Lows in the 60s with a West/North wind 5-15mph.
Thursday, plenty of sunshine & breezy at times. It will not be as hot with in & out light clouds. Highs in the 80s & 90s & still above average with a North wind 10-20mph G30, for some. 
Thursday night, mostly clear with a few clouds. It will be a little cooler with temps closer to average, before our next warm up. Lows in the 50s & 60s with a NE wind 2-12mph G20.

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