Monday’s PM Forecast Update 9/18

Weather Blog
From the KX Storm Center:
After a wet weekend and a sunny start to the work week, it will stay quiet this evening as a ridge of high pressure moves East across the Dakotas. To the west & northwest, our next change-up is taking shape. There is a developing low moving over the Pacific Northwest & another over Alberta. More development is expected tonight & into early tomorrow. Through Tuesday, a strong shortwave (piece of energy) will develop a little more and move out of the Northern Rockies & into the Dakotas. Scattered rain & thunderstorms will start to develop before Noon (over Western ND) and move East through Central ND and across the state. As this system moves East, it will continue to develop and strengthen. This is  good news/bad news situation. Bad news: there is a risk of severe weather across the Eastern half of the Dakotas. Good news: it is mostly over Eastern ND with a Marginal to Slight risk of severe weather for parts of Central ND to about Jamestown. 
So, it all breaks down to timing. There are several different weather models that we use to help the forecasting process. For the first half of the day, there will be what we call a CAP. Essentially, the energy level over our area will be limited. By the afternoon & evening, energy will potentially bust through that CAP, allowing for organized thunderstorms that may become severe. By the late afternoon & evening, models are suggesting that there will be a massive line of strong thunderstorms with the capability of becoming severe. This line will move East through the state and over MN before it is all said & done. 
Out of the different models, most of them are lining up with the above timeline. The long-range, U.S. model (GFS) is bringing this same system through, quicker. So under the GFS, thunderstorms would develop sooner & further West (over Western & Central ND). That being said, one of the known biases of the GFS is that it runs “too cold & too quick”. That bias usually pops up further down the road, but it may be applicable here. After model analysis, I am keeping my forecast in line with the NWS & SPC and what is above in this forecast update.

After rain & thunderstorms tomorrow, expect more sunshine through Wednesday & Thursday. The end of the work week will bring higher rain chances back into play. Unfortunately, even through higher rain chances are forecast tomorrow & through the weekend, It looks like a grand total of up to 1″ with a few areas across ND of 1″-2″+ possible during the next 7 days. Either way, we will take all of the rain we can get!
High temperatures will be in the 60s & 70s through Wednesday. By the end of the work week, a second system rolls into & through the Dakotas with more clouds, the return of rain & cooler air. Highs will dip back into the 50s with a few 60s through the latter half of the 7day Outlook. 
With several rain chances forecast through the next 7days, the biggest risk of severe weather will be tomorrow, mainly for Central & Eastern ND.

Tonight, increasing clouds and cool with temps above average for this time of the year. After Midnight & through the AM, a few showers will be possible. Lows in the 50s with an East/SE wind 5-15mph G20. 10% chance of rain.
Tuesday will be mostly cloudy with rain chances picking up from the late morning through the afternoon. Thunderstorms will become scattered with a risk of severe weather & it will be windy. Highs in the 60s & 70s with a SE/NW wind 10-20mph G30-40. 40% chance of rain.

Tuesday night, scattered rain & thunderstorms will continue to move East with a risk of severe weather. Lows in the 30s & 40s and a West/SW wind falling to 2-12mph G20. 40% chance of rain.
Wednesday will bring clearing early with plenty of sunshine & it will still be breezy. Highs in the 60s & 70s with a SW/South wind 10-20mph & Gusty. 20% chance of rain, early.
Wednesday night, partly cloudy & a little cool. Lows in the 40s & 50s with a South/SW wind 5-15mph.
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