Across the state there have only been a few scattered showers & thunderstorms, so far. All of the sunshine is helping temperatures climb well above average and into a record breaking range. Several locations will warm to near & above record highs with dew points in the 50s & 60s. Higher dew points bean more moisture, making it feel a little humid. Couple the added moisture with record breaking temperatures and the atmosphere is primed for strong thunderstorms. The only thing that is holding us back is what we call a CAP. There is a layer of the atmosphere (well above the surface) that is holding back thunderstorm development. If any storms bust this “cap” further development will be possible and even quick, for some. A few of our high resolution models keep a chance for thunderstorms to develop over Central ND, during the next few hours (mid to late afternoon). Any storms will continue to move East and this will be our first chance for severe weather.
A low pressure system that is over the MT/SD/ND border will move East, bringing higher rain chances through the state. With the environment already primed for severe weather, there will be another opportunity for storms to become severe tonight. After the 10pm show, rain & thunderstorms will move through Western & Central ND and some of these storms could become organized and develop into severe weather. That is what we will continue to monitor this evening & track, overnight.
Through the rest of this evening and tonight we will be in the AWARE stage of our severe weather coverage. This means that there is a chance for severe weather. This includes a slight & moderate risk from the SPC that spans across most of North Dakota. If any warnings are issued by the NWS (or extreme weather is moving through our area) we will go into the ALERT stage. The ALERT stage means that inclement (& possibly life threatening) weather is moving through our area.