Severe Weather Alert | Thursday 7/20

Weather Blog
From the KX Storm Center:
It is hot & a little humid with more rain chances on the way. Today we are in Severe Weather AWARE mode. There is a risk of severe weather this afternoon & evening. The main forcing feature is a low pressure system, over Montana near the ND border. This low has a warm front stretched SE through the Northern & Central Plains. Not far behind the warm front is a cold front that is swinging around from SW to South of the low. Other than the low & fronts, it is hot today with afternoon temps climbing well into the 90s for much of Western & Central ND. Not everyone is getting this hot, but high dew points are in place across the state. Dew points from the mid 50s to the mid 60s are helping to add to the instability over our area. This means that there is “thunderstorm fuel” ahead of the approaching system & fronts. Couple high dew points & hot temps and thunderstorms have started to develop along the front edge of this system.

A few of these early showers & thunderstorms have been strong, with one severe thunderstorm (for Northern McKenzie county) as of 3:20pm cdt. From the late afternoon through this evening (4-10pm) there will be a chance of scattered rain, thunderstorms and a risk of severe weather. At this point the Storm Prediction Center has us under a slight risk of severe weather for most of Western & Central ND and a Moderate risk of severe weather for the rest of the state.

A Marginal risk of severe weather means that isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. They will be limited in duration, coverage & intensity. Potential impacts include strong winds 40-60mph, Large hail up to 1″, frequent cloud to ground lightning and a low risk of tornadoes
 
A Slight risk of severe weather means that scattered severe thunderstorms are possible. They will be short-lived and not widespread. Isolated intense storms will be possible. Potential impacts include reports of strong winds/wind damage, Hail around 1″ (isolated 2″) and one or two tornadoes are not out of the question.
 
In the wake of rain chances this evening, our low pressure system will continue to move East across the state. After model analysis, it looks like convection & thunderstorm activity will mainly be charged by daytime heating. The low, fronts & high dew points are all good starting points, especially together. That being said, there will be a break from rain chances and the risk of severe weather. 

Friday will bring another round of rain chances with hot temps and a risk of severe weather (Central & Eastern ND). All of this will be as our system continues to roll East. Rain chances will end as we wrap up the work week and go into the weekend. Our sunny, warm and mostly dry weather pattern will then pick back up. This weekend will be dry and Breezy for Saturday with temps staying in the 80s & a few 90s through most of the 7day planner. Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday. There will be a few more chances for rain as another low pressure system & pair of fronts moves across the state. 

Tonight, partly to mostly cloudy with scattered rain & thunderstorms and a risk of severe weather early. Lows in the 60s with a few 70s and a SE/E wind 5-15mph G20. 50% chance of rain.
 
Friday will be partly cloudy, hot & breezy for some with a chance for rain & thunderstorms. Highs in the 90s & 80s (East) with an East/NW wind 5-15mph G20. 30% chance of rain.
 
Friday night, rain chances ending & mostly clear with seasonable temps and still a little breezy for some. Lows in the 50s & 60s with a NW/West wind 2-12mph G20 and picking up.20% chance of rain.

Saturday, plenty of sunshine and not as hot. Highs in the 80s with a few 90s and seasonable. It will be breezy with a West/NW wind 10-20mph G30.
 
Saturday night, mostly clear and a pleasantly cool. Lows in the 50s with a few 60s and a NW/North wind 2-12mph G20.
 
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