Severe Weather Aware Update Tuesday 9/19

Weather Blog
From the KX Storm Center:
Scattered rain & thunderstorms are moving East through North Dakota with a risk of severe weather for Central & Eastern ND. This system is slowly moving West to East across the Dakotas and continues to develop. After analyzing current conditions and both high definition & long range models, the severe risk is not over yet. This line of thunderstorms will organize and strengthen a little bit more before it is all said and done. A few of the high definition models show a very defined squall line with a continued risk of severe weather through the rest of this evening. Model guidance is agreeing that the line of thunderstorms will move out of the Dakotas before Midnight, tonight. That being said there is a Marginal to Slight risk of severe weather for Central ND and a Slight to Enhanced risk of severe weather for Eastern ND, through this evening & into tonight. 

A Marginal risk of severe weather means that isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. They will be limited in duration, coverage & intensity. Potential impacts include strong winds 40-60mph, Large hail up to 1″, frequent cloud to ground lightning and a low risk of tornadoes
A Slight risk of severe weather means that scattered severe thunderstorms are possible. They will be short-lived and not widespread. Isolated intense storms will be possible. Potential impacts include reports of strong winds/wind damage, Hail around 1″ (isolated 2″) and one or two tornadoes are not out of the question.

An Enhanced risk of severe weather means that numerous severe storms are possible. Severe weather will be more persistent and/or widespread with a few intense storms. Potential impacts include several reports of wind damage with 1″-2″ hail.
Tonight, storms will clear out with tapering rain chances & clearing. In the wake of this round of rain/storms, it will cool down a little bit.Keeping that in mind, temps will not go to far and stay in a seasonable range through the next couple of days. Wednesday & Thursday will start off cool, bring more sunshine & it will still be breezy. By the end of the work week, there will be another system that rolls through the Dakotas. This will be our next round of rain chances with not much in the way of thunderstorms or severe weather. Just a little more rain & cooler temps. After Friday and through the weekend lows will be in the lower 40s & upper 30s with highs in the 50s & 60s. So, keep a jacket handy. If you don’t want it through the next couple of mornings, you will probably want it  through the weekend and into next week. Off/on rain chances will continue through the weekend, wrapping up on Sunday. 

Through the next 7day, there will be a few rain chances for rain and the only risk of severe weather is this evening/tonight. Later this week, it will not be as mild and dew points will be much lower. So, not only are we looking at no risk of severe weather, but very few thunderstorms are expected too. Through both systems most of our area will stay below 0.50″ of new rain and a few areas (especially Central ND) could see up to 1″ with more possible for some. 
Tonight, scattered rain & thunderstorms will continue to move East with a risk of severe weather. Lows in the 30s & 40s and a West/SW wind falling to 5-15mph G20. 40% chance of rain.
Wednesday will bring clearing early with plenty of sunshine & it will still be breezy. Highs in the 60s & 70s with a SW/South wind 10-20mph G30. 20% chance of rain, early.
Wednesday night, partly cloudy & a little cool with in & out clouds. Lows in the 40s & 50s with a South wind 5-15mph.
Thursday, mostly sunny with gradually increasing clouds and breezy. Highs in the 60s & 70s with a few 80s and a South/NW wind 5-15mph G20.
Thursday night, partly to mostly cloudy with increasing cover and a few showers possible. Lows in the 40s & 50s with a North wind 2-12mph G20. 20% chance of rain.
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