Thursday’s PM Forecast Update 9/14

Weather Blog
From the KX Storm Center:
Our unseasonably warm & dry spell is over. Scattered showers have been moving through the state since yesterday and it is nowhere near yet yet. Rain will become widespread tonight and continue through Friday. By Saturday, there will still be some showers, with rain chances tapering off Saturday Night/Sunday. This next round of rain will likely extend across most of (if not all of) the state. Not only are we looking at significant totals, high rainfall accumulations are possible. Widespread totals of 1″-2″ are expected with a few parts of Western & Central ND getting as much as 2″-3″+. The good news is that this round of widespread, high accumulations will be very good for our rainfall deficit. Second, it will be prolonged light-moderate rain. So, small rain drops (opposed to larger drops from summertime storms). So, it will soak into our soil and not run off quickly. It will also help “clear the air” getting smoke & ash particulates out of the air. 
A few thunderstorms will be possible, but not for everyone. Winds will pick up this evening & become windy (15-30mph) at times, tomorrow. It will stay breezy through Friday night, Saturday & Saturday night. All the while, temps fall dramatically. Highs will be in the 50s Friday/Saturday with lows in the 40s. Saturday night, rain chances wrap up, winds calm down & skies clear out. This combination of changing conditions will set us up for “radiational cooling”. Sunday morning will be chilly with temps falling well into the 30s for some and areas of frost are in the forecast. 
By the beginning of the work week, daytime highs will climb back into the 70s and near average for this time of the year. (40s/70s). So, a cool start & pleasant temps through the day with more sun and low rain chances. Late in the 7day planner, rain chances return, again.
Through the 7day Outlook, there are several chances of rain with much needed rainfall & high totals possible. There is little to no risk of severe weather. However, isolated thunderstorms are possible and may become a little strong if any develop.
Tonight, smoke will become/stay dense for many of us. Otherwise, it will be partly to mostly cloudy with some clearing & isolated rain possible. Lows in the 50s & a few 60s (East) with a NE/North wind 2-12mph G20. 30% chance of rain.
Thursday, mostly cloudy with rising rain chances & it will stay a little breezy. Lows in the 40s & 50s (East & Central) with a North wind 5-15mph G20. 60% chance of rain.
Friday will be cloudy with widespread rain & a few thunderstorms possible. Highs in the 50s & 40s with a few 60s possible (East). North/NE wind 10-20mph G30. 90% chance of rain. 
Friday night, continued rain & a little chilly. Lows in the 40s with a few 30s and a North wind 5-15mph G25. 70% chance of rain.
Saturday, mostly cloudy with a little clearing at times. Highs in the 40s & 50s (East) with a North wind 5-15mph. 30% chance of rain. 
Saturday night, tapering rain chances, clearing skies & cooling temps. It will get chilly with calming winds. Lows in the 30s & 40s with a N/W wind 2-12mph. 20% chance of rain.
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